Why are GPUs so Expensive? The cause of the GPU crisis, and how it could end

Why are GPUs so Expensive? The cause of the GPU crisis, and how it could end

Why are GPUs so Expensive?

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably noticed the sky-high graphics cards prices that have plagued PC builders everywhere for the past few months. The situation continues to worsen, so much to the point that 1050 Tis, which retailed for $139 back in 2016, are selling like hotcakes for upwards of $290 on Amazon. Nvidia’s newest graphics cards, the 30-series, are more or less impossible to come by, and are selling for upwards of three times retail price in some places. Why is this? Well, a Trump-imposed import tax, combined with the recent surge in crypto-mining profitability, are primarily to blame.

A GTX 1650, a graphics card that retailed for $149, goes for $500-600 today.

The aforementioned tax is a 25% tariff on imports from China, and it affects essentially all major hardware manufacturers. This means an increased total cost for Zotac, EVGA, Gigabyte, XFX, PNY, and other major brands, and most of them are passing on at least some of the cost to consumers. Essentially, even if no other factors were at play we’d still be paying up to 25% more for graphics cards.

This tariff hit consumers hard, but in conjunction with all-time-high cryptocurrency prices it created the perfect storm. If you’re not familiar with cryptocurrency mining, the basic premise is that a person sets up a computer to run computations in exchange for cryptocurrency, which can be sold at market price for fiat (common) money. The graphics card is the component of the computer that actually runs the computation, so many miners have bought up as many graphics cards as possible to maximize their mining profit.

Over the past several months, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen a steady upward trend, and consequently mining has become more profitable by the day. A similar situation occurred in 2017, where Bitcoin rose to almost $20k, peaking in December of that year. GPU prices are very heavily correlated with the going price of Bitcoin, as shown above, and the current price of Bitcoin is more than twice as much as its peak in 2017. It was inevitable that GPU prices would go up.

How will it end?

Nvidia has announced a new line of CMPs (crypto mining processors), which are set to release by the end of March. These will offer miners utility in the form of hashing power, but will be worthless for graphical generation. With these CMPs, Nvidia seeks to decrease the demand on consumer graphics cards for mining purposes.

They are also taking steps to effectively nerf the mining power of newer graphics cards, but there will likely be workarounds, and these steps may not deter miners from continuing to buy up the supply of new GPUs. In short, Nvidia’s steps to ameliorate the current GPU shortage may or may not work, and will largely depend on how much value the CMPs offer in comparison to more traditional mining cards. We will have to wait and see.

Another way for the shortage to resolve would be a second crash in cryptocurrency values. With cryptocurrency’s current trajectory, I wouldn’t bet on it happening. It is a possibility, though, and would certainly result in diminished GPU costs.

Conclusion:

Don’t count on Nvidia’s mining cards to bail us out of this abysmal situation. We can hope, but the outlook isn’t exactly great. Expect GPU prices to stay high, and perhaps rise even more. I wouldn’t wait to build a computer, as it may be years before they’re affordable again. The best you can do at this point is build your computer and offset the extra cost by mining yourself.

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